You Want An Explanation?

by MJfan02

Everybody's asking the same question ... "Why in the world did the Wolves draft Jonny Flynn, a point guard, one pick after they took Ricky Rubio, another point guard?" The easy answers are the most frustrating ones.

• "They're trading Rubio because Minnesota sucks and nobody would ever want to play here."
• "They've worked out a deal to send Ricky to New York because Kahn and Donnie Walsh are friends."
• "They're just idiots and don't know what they're doing ... the Wolves are screwed."

But let's look a little deeper and try to figure out some of the other factors that may have led to the Wolves drafting both Rubio and Flynn.

• The Wolves new going in to the draft that there was no guarantee Rubio would be able (or willing) to get out of his contract in Spain. We can all agree that Minnesota isn't the most ideal location for a budding NBA superstar for a few reasons (weather, market size, etc.), if Rubio were to fall to the fifth pick then he wouldn't be paid quite as much as he expected, and he is currently having an arbitrator decide whether or not his buyout amount is a fair price. If it just so happens that Rubio is not able to come to the NBA next season for any reason other than his father pulling an Archie Manning and trying to choose what team he gets to play for, then the Wolves are still in dire need of a back court since Sebastian Telfair and Bobby Brown are their only current guards on the roster.

• Jonny Flynn in one hell of a player. Anybody in Minnesota would have been psyched to get this kid if Rubio had been off the board. He was legitimately excited to be coming here and he is the type of charismatic team leader that we needed. He's the type of player that we should be excited to have drafted and can be a staple of this team for a long time. Let's say that Rubio stays in Spain for another season or two. Jonny Flynn is going to be the Wolves starting point guard and Wolves fans are going to fall in love with him.

• If Kahn lucks out and Rubio does come over to the States for the 09-10 season, then we have to remember that this process is not complete. If the Wolves do decide to keep both Rubio and Flynn then they will be two very good players on a great team in the future. Everybody accepts that if we just had a shot blocking center to play 20-25 minutes per game and spell Jefferson or Love then our front court would be complete. We now have the same situation in our backcourt. We will need a three man backcourt rotation to be a great team and when we acquire a true shooting guard they don't have to be a star, they just have to complement Rubio and Flynn well. If we had a shooter with good size that could defend larger guards, then we would have the ability to not only match up with any team, but we would also have the ability to create mismatches of our own.

• As hard as it is to admit, there's a good chance that one of these two players will end up as more of a solid role player than a superstar. The last five sixth overall picks have been Danillo Gallinari, Yi Jianlian, Brandon Roy, Martell Webster and Josh Childress. Based on those results we have one superstar, one good role player, two unknowns and one scrub. We'd like to believe that the Wolves won't be the ones making mistakes with a top-6 pick, but it does happen. The worst case scenario (and probably most likely scenario) is that we now have one star point guard and one very solid backup point guard/third guard for the future.

• After all of this, the Wolves still have options. The have not tied themselves into one point guard and one shooting guard that have to pan out or our future is screwed. We still have a crap-load of expiring contracts and three first round picks in next year's draft (which is supposed to be stronger than this one) to complete our team. If Rubio goes to Spain for another year, we have a starting point guard. If he doesn't then we have two great players. We are the ones that get to decide whether or not to trade either of these players and now can't be pressured into making a move before we're ready. Rubio and Flynn will most likely both improve over the next season since they're both still so young and we could decide which one of them to build around after another year or scouting. We are the ones that get to decide Ricky Rubio's future in the NBA. We traded away our two top bargaining-chips in Randy Foye and Mike Miller's expiring contract to get Rubio, but we now still have infinite possibilities if we want to change direction.

Overall, the lesson is to not overreact on draft night. We haven't traded Rubio away yet and all signs point to Kahn keeping him unless there's a no-doubt-about-it better option available. If the Wolves had drafted Rubio and DeRozan, and then DeRozan had ended up being a scrub, Minnesota would have still won in this draft because we got Rubio. Instead, we got a transcendent player in Ricky Rubio, and the next best player remaining in Jonny Flynn. Nobody left the draft with more talent than we did and these moves will not be able to be judged this summer. We have to see what happens with Rubio's contract, we have to see how good both these players can be, and we have to see if Kahn is right in believing that both of these players can play together.

I know we're all scared that the Wolves will get bullied into making a bad move by Dan Fegan, ESPN (Chad Ford is a douche-canoe) or Donnie Walsh ... but nobody can make David Kahn do anything that doesn't benefit the Timberwolves. And until he actually starts to screw things up, we owe it to him to believe what he says and reserve judgement until there are some results.

2009 Mock Draft 1 (Finishing the First Round)

Check out the top-14 picks of the hoopsfancentral.com mock draft here.

15. Detroit Pistons: BJ Mullens
I don't think that Mullens is good enough to be drafted this high, but center is the greated position of need for the Pistons and if they don't trade this pick they'll have to look long and hard at taking Mullens.

16. Chicago Bulls: James Johnson
The Bulls could use a player that can create his own shot in the post. Johnson is a bit of a tweener, but will mesh well next to the shot blocking of Noah and Thomas (assuming they're both still there).

17. Philadelphia 76ers: Ty Lawson
The Sixers need to invest in their point guard of the future this offseason whether Andre Miller bolts in free agency or not. Lawson will provide some much needed outside shooting to the team and would be a steal at 17.

18. Minnesota Timberwolves: Nick Calathes
Fred Hoiberg has stated that the team's goals this offseason are to add athleticism and size. DeRozan added both at pick No. 6, and Calathes will continue to increase the size of the Wolves backcourt. Going from Telfair and Foye to Calathes and DeRozan will dramatically increase the length and defensive presence of the Wolves starting guards.

19. Atlanta Hawks: Jonny Flynn
Flynn is projected to be a lottery pick, so being able to grab him at 19 would be a coup for the Hawks. They still need a long-term answer at the point guard position since the pick of Acie Law IV hasn't panned out.

20. Utah Jazz: Austin Daye
There weren't any big men left to replace Carlos Boozer if he leaves via free agency, so the Jazz will take the 6'10" Daye as an eventual replacement for Andrei Kirilenko.

21. New Orleans Hornets: Chase Budinger
The Hornets are another team that could use front court depth, but they also are desperate for an athletic shooting guard to play between Paul and Stojakovic. Budinger provides them with that athleticism and has a nice outside shooting touch to help spread the floor.

22. Dallas Mavericks: Jeff Teague
The Mavs are another team that needs to start getting younger at key positions, and with no way of knowing how much longer they'll have Jason Kidd the drafting of Jeff Teague as the point guard of the future makes sense. He partially replicates what Jason Terry does, but is too good to pass up at this point.

23. Sacramento Kings: Tyler Hansbrough
The Kings addressed their need for a point guard by drafting Jrue Holiday with the 4th pick, and now will look to add depth to their front court by taking Hansbrough. The power forward from UNC is they type of scrappy, hard-working player that would complement Hawes and Thompsen well.

24. Portland TrailBlazers: Omri Casspi
The Blazers biggest need is a true point guard, but it feels like they would like to address that need by bringing in a veteran like Andre Miller or Jason Kidd ... so they will look to draft the best foreign prospect available in Casspi from Israel. They can let him play overseas for a couple years and then bring him over when he's ready.

25. Oklahoma City: Gani Lawal
The Thunder need a power forward now that Joe Smith and Chris Wilcox are both gone, and Lawal is the best prospect available.

26. Chicago Bulls: Wayne Ellington
The Bulls have depth at every position except shooting guard, especially with the potential of Ben Gordon leaving, and also need to get taller in their backcourt. Ellington would solve both those problems and be a nice addition to the Bulls.

27. Memphis Grizzlies: Derrick Brown
The Grizzlies need a backup SF since their only option there now is Marco Jaric and they also need a stronger option at PF. Brown will help address both of those needs as he has great size and skill for a SF but played PF at Xavier.

28. Minnesota Timberwolves: Terrance Williams
The Wolves get a player who has the talent to be a lottery pick in Williams and hope that he can put it all together. With Minnesota potentially looking to trade Mike Miller to bring in a big name player this offseason they could use another wing player, even after drafting DeRozan earlier.

29. Los Angeles Lakers: Darren Collison
The Lakers point guards have really struggled over the last few months are are easily the weak link of the team, so bringing in a player like Collison who is a tenacious defender, great outside shooter and amazingly quick would be a big upgrade.

30. Cleveland Cavaliers: DaJuan Summers
The Cavs need to get bigger at the 2 and replace Szczerbiak at the 3 if he leaves, so drafting Summers from Georgetown makes sense. He is primarily a jump shooter, but that's what the Cavs look for in players to surround LeBron.

Winning the Lottery?

On the morning of the 2009 NBA Draft Lottery, the Timberwolves find themselves shunned by a third front office candidate and with only a 7.6% chance of ending up with the top pick in June's draft. Things seem a tad bleak in the land of 10,000 lakes at the moment, so I came up with a way to help you feel better about the Wolves chances this evening.

The Wolves having a 7.6% chance of winning the Draft Lottery is equal to somebody buying over 14.5 million Powerball tickets. I'd give you the exact number, but my calculator will only go up to eight digits. If you want to take it one step further, the Wolves have a 25.49% chance of landing a top-3 pick, which is comparable to purchasing almost 50 million Powerball tickets. (Further explanation of Powerball odds can be found here.)

I don't know about you, but if I were presented with 50 million powerball tickets I'd make sure I was plastered in front of my television during Wednesday's drawing (even though I'd then have to pay countless people millions of dollars to find out if I actually had any winning tickets). But for you Wolves fans out there, there's more than a shimmer of hope that our team could get lucky for the second straight season and be a lottery winner.

With that said, I have decided to put together my own Draft Board for the Wolves. I held the assumption that if a player were drafted, he would have to be kept, which explains why power forwards tended to drop from traditional rankings. Below are the top-18 players (since that's where the Wolves 2nd pick is) as I see them.

1. Blake Griffin

The consensus #1 pick is, unfortunately, too good to pass up here even though the two best players on the Wolves already play the power forward position. Griffin would most likely be a better fit next to cornerstone Al Jefferson since he's more athletic than last year's top pick Kevin Love.

2. Ricky Rubio

The Wolves have an immense need for a starting caliber PG and the agreement is that Rubio is the top candidate at the position. It's hard to get a guage for exactly how good he is since he plays in Europe, but he's young, talented, and has been playing at Europe's highest professional level. His ability to push the pace and be a distributor would help the Wolves both next year and for years to come.

3. Hasheem Thabeet

I'm a little scared of Thabeet. While he does have great potential, can help immediately on the defensive end, and fills perhaps the Wolves greatest hole (a defensive presence in the interior) he has shown the ability to disappear in games, get pushed around by stronger players and have trouble when pulled out on the perimeter.

4. Stephen Curry

This is where I start to disagree with most draft experts and fans. James Harden is a terrific player, but the Wolves cannot take a chance that they won't get a starting point guard out of a draft that is full of them. Waiting until the 18th pick to fill the need at the point could end disastrously if all of the top players at the position are gone and you have to reach for somebody.

Curry is an offensive-minded point guard that has a flair for the spectacular and can score from anywhere on the court. According to DraftExpress.com Curry was much better in spot up situations and screen-and-rolls than when he had to create for himself at Davidson, but with the Wolves half-court style of basketball and his ability to feed Al Jefferson that's just the type of player we need. And as Stop-n-Pop of CanisHoopus.com points out, the pick and roll potential with Curry and Love would be fantastic.

He also has tremendous size for a PG at 6'3" and can play SG if called upon to do so.

5. Ty Lawson

Ty Lawson is the closest thing to Chris Paul that you're going to find in this draft. He's slightly undersized in terms of height, but he's fast, strong, and his ability to change speeds allows him to be a tremendous finisher in the lane. His 3.5/1 assist-to-turnover ratio was off the charts last season as he led the National Champion Tar Heels. He was the best point guard in college basketball during the NCAA Tournament, and perhaps only Blake Griffin was more impressive overall. The experts can say that he'll go in the mid-1st round, and he even might, but I know what I saw in Ty Lawson over the past season ... and the numbers back me up. From DraftExpress.com's PG rankings ...

"He ranks first (among point guards) in a number of key categories, including overall FG% (52%), Points Per Possession [PPP](1.13), pull up jump shot FG% (47%), and %shots he was fouled on (16.1%). Though his teammates did a lot of scoring as well, Lawson functioned seamlessly as a complementary scorer. Looking past his efficiency as a shooter off the dribble, he was second in catch and shoot field goal percentage at 48%. From a purely statistical sense, no player on this list scored more efficiently than Lawson."

Lawson won't be asked to be the primary scorer for the Wolves, but can hit any shot at a high percentage (.532 FG, .798 FT and .472 3-Pt last season) and is capable of playing at any pace offensively.

6. Jrue Holiday

Let's state the negatives first. Holiday isn't a pure point guard, he struggled in his only season at UCLA, and he's not a dead-eye shooter. He's not the athlete that Russell Westbrook was coming out of college and he'd be a project.

Now let's state the obvious. The TWolves are a bad defensive team. They're undersized at almost every position and can only pray that their best perimeter defender (Corey Brewer) can return from ACL surgery with the same athleticism as he had prior to his injury.

Jrue Holiday is 6'4" with a 6'8" wingspan ... both terrific measurements for a PG. He has quick feet and is known as a ball-hawk on the defensive end. He has a great basketball IQ for a college freshman and is a good passer. He's also a good rebounder and was known as possibly the most complete player entering the college ranks last season. He'd immediately help the Wolves get bigger and improve the perimeter defense, which would in turn place our bigs (Jefferson and Love) in less difficult situations and help make up for their struggles on that end of the floor as well.

7. Brandon Jennings

Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress.com writes of his experience watching Jennings play in Europe recently ...

"Pitted against one of the best defenders in Europe in American guard Ibi Jaaber, Jennings gets to wherever he wants on the court, showing blazing speed, outstanding ball-handling skills, incredible creativity and a real flair for making flashy plays. He makes spot-up and pull-up jumpers from inside and outside the arc, runs the pick and roll to perfection while flicking gorgeous underhanded bounce-passes right on the money to a flashing Andre Hutson, and even tries to go up and challenge former NBA center Primoz Brezec in transition with an emphatic dunk."

Jennings has been compared to Gilbert Arenas in his style of play, but has struggled mightily in his one season playing professional basketball in Europe. He has handled himself well while there, which is refreshing, but it's hard to get excited about a player that hasn't put up meaningful numbers in over a year and has a tendancy to dominate the basketball.

Although his Steve Harvey style flat top is more than welcome.

8. Tyreke Evans

Evans is more of a shooting guard, and the first one on my list, but can crossover to the point as he showed in his one season at Memphis. He has great size (6'6") for both guard positions and is tremendously gifted at getting to the rim. The Wolves have been lacking a player that can consistently get to the rim and finish for years now and a player like Evans who can put pressure on the defense and draw fouls would be a refreshing change.

9. James Harden

There is a zero percent chance that James Harden is available at the Wolves second pick, so with eight players I'd prefer over him he wouldn't end up on the team if I were running things. Don't get me wrong, he can be a great player, but he's just not what the Wolves need. He's a 6'4" SG that wouldn't help our team get any bigger, and drafting him would force Randy Foye back to the point where he's less comfortable (unless we also acquired a starting PG, in which case Foye would be a scoring 6th man, which is really where he should be). Harden may be a great NBA player, but I just feel like we have much greater needs at the moment.

10. Earl Clark

For me, this is the official drop-off from top-tier prospects to everybody else. Clark is more suited to play PF when he hits the NBA due to continually shrinking front courts, but could be the long, athletic SF that the Wolves need to play with a Jefferson/Love front court. Compared to Lamar Odom on his good days (and Tim Thomas on his bad ones) Clark has the ability to take over a game in any fashion and can be the best player on the floor. Chad Ford of ESPN.com described it best after seeing Clark in a pre-draft workout recently.

"There really isn't anything on the court that Clark can't do well," wrote Ford. "He has guard-like abilities in the frame of a 6-foot-10 player."

Unfortunately, Clark also has a nasty habbit of disappearing and not showing the heart to be a great player. If he can show that he has the drive, though, he could be a great player and complement the other Wolves fantastically.

11. DeMar DeRozan

I just don't understand this one. Granted, I've never seen DeRozan play, but I'm having a hard time wrapping my mind around why everybody wants the Wolves to pick this guy.

He's a 2/3 combo, but at 6'6" would be primarily forced to play SG for the Wolves. That gives him good size for his position, but he is a weak outside shooter (only 16.7% from 3-Pt range last season) and not a strong ball handler. He may be the best athlete in the draft, but he has a long way to go before making a real contribution in the NBA and I don't see how he would mesh well with a team that likes to feed Jefferson in the post and spot up for jump shots.

12. Jonny Flynn

Flynn showed some major heart in the Big East tournament last season for Syracuse and has the potential to be a very good point guard. He is lightning quick and has a nice selection of shots that he can go to including pull-ups and floaters. He's a bit undersized and needs to add some strength, but he's a physical player who's not afraid to get into the paint.

I'm not sure if he would start over Telfair as a rookie, but if he could work on his outside shot and expand on what Aaron Brooks has been able to do for the Rockets he could eventually take the reigns.

13. Eric Maynor

I'm going to come out and admit that I've dropped Maynor this far because he went to a small school (VCU) and I've only seen him play once. He has good size (6'3") and his stats were impressive (especially his 1.7 steals per game) during his senior year, but I'll leave this one up to Matt Kamalsky of DraftExpress.com ...

"Maynor’s best quality appears to be his short range game, he got to the rim 8 times per game and posted a PPP of 1.12 as a finisher. That’s slightly above average, but few players on this list utilize the same mix of floaters and scoops that Maynor does, and those types of shots have a much greater degree of difficulty than the average layup. Maynor didn’t fall below the average in nearly any category, usually hovering around the middle of the pack, and his isolation PPP of 1.01 stood out amongst this group. The team that drafts Maynor will be getting a player that obviously knows his limitations and can play a number of roles well, but might not stand out in any one area immediately."

14. Jordan Hill

There should be no real reason for the Wolves to draft Hill unless he's fallen so far that he's just too good to pass up. He's a traditional PF, which is the last thing that the Wolves need right now, and doesn't have the size to play backup center. He doesn't have a terrific basketball IQ, and if this draft weren't so weak on big men he'd be a mid-1st round pick instead of a top-5 pick like he's projected to be.

15. Nick Calathes

I was tempted to move Calathes even further up this list, but need to get a better understanding of his athleticism at the combine first to know if he has the quickness to stay in front of speedier guards. He has great size for a PG at 6'5" and is a great passer, even being compared to Steve Nash. When ESPN's David Thorpe was asked to compare Calathes and Stephen Curry, he said that "Calathes might have a bigger upside and a lower downside."

16. Jeff Teague

Teague is a combo guard in a point guard's body. At only 6'2" he really has to be a PG in the NBA, but is much more comfortable creating for himself than others. He started the season out strong for Wake Forest, but as his team faltered during the second half of the season, so did he. Out of all the players on this list, I feel like he would have benefitted the most from another season in college.

17. Darren Collison

Collison could have been considered a lottery pick if he had entered the NBA two seasons ago, but has failed to really improve at UCLA. That said, he's learned how to be a terrific on-the-ball defender under Ben Howland, is a good outside shooter, and is amazingly fast. If he had played in a more up-tempo system he would probably be considered a much better player.

After watching Collison workout recently, Chad Ford had this to say.

"Collison is currently in the mix with a number of other top prospects, but ultimately he'll be competing against the other uber-quick point guards like Ty Lawson, Patrick Mills and Jonny Flynn for a spot in the late lottery to mid-first round. Of the three, Collison is the best shooter, the fastest end to end and the best defender. Whether that's enough to put him ahead of the pack remains to be seen -- but having those four in the gym should be a really interesting workout."

18. Chase Budinger

At this point in the draft, Budinger's athleticism starts to outweigh his lack of a "motor." He can jump out of the gym and is a good outside shooter at the same time, but has been questioned because he doesn't take over games and hasn't shown the drive to be a great player. He would do a lot of the same things for the Wolves that Rodney Carney currently provides, but at one time he was considered a high lottery pick and still has great potential.